According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil markets have started pricing in risk as shipments through the Hormuz Strait have steadily declined since June 13th. While this does not signal a complete shutdown, which would be a worst-case scenario, the ongoing reduction could pressure global energy prices and potentially prompt central banks to consider rate hikes if disruptions worsen (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 22, 2025). For cryptocurrency traders, a rise in oil prices and potential rate hikes could increase market volatility for assets like BTC and ETH, as risk sentiment may shift rapidly in response to global macroeconomic developments.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, global central banks have executed 10 rate cuts and 3 hikes in 2025, following a substantial trend of 164 cuts and 32 hikes in 2024. This shift indicates a strategic adjustment compared to the 162 cuts and 6 hikes during the 2020 pandemic. The U.S. has paused rate cuts, while European central banks continue to adjust policies, which could influence trading strategies in forex and bond markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, global central banks have implemented 10 rate cuts and 3 hikes so far in 2025. In contrast to the 164 rate cuts and 32 hikes in 2024, and 162 cuts and 6 hikes during the 2020 pandemic, the US is currently pausing rate cuts while Europe continues its adjustments. This monetary policy shift could impact currency markets and influence trading strategies, particularly in forex and interest rate futures. Source: The Kobeissi Letter.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, prediction markets, as reported by @Kalshi, currently see a 23% probability of interest rate hikes returning in 2025. This sentiment follows a significant increase in CPI inflation, which recorded its largest month-over-month rise of 0.5% since August 2023. Additionally, PPI inflation has unexpectedly surged to its highest level since February 2023. These inflation metrics are critical for traders to consider as they may influence future monetary policy adjustments, potentially impacting cryptocurrency markets sensitive to interest rate changes.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets now see a 23% chance of rate hikes returning in 2025, as reported by @Kalshi. This follows recent CPI data showing a 0.5% month-over-month increase, the largest since August 2023. Additionally, PPI inflation jumped to its highest since February 2023, which may influence interest rate expectations. Traders should consider these inflation indicators and market expectations when forming their trading strategies.